Micheal Moore is saying that 2016 could happen again-Trump wins.
In a recent Facebook post Moore says Trump's enthusiasm factor is off the charts. Here is a Business Insider report on Moore's Facebook post on the 2020 election.
“Filmmaker Michael Moore has warned that history may be repeating itself, and as in 2016 complacent progressives are ignoring the huge and fervent support President Trump has in battleground states.
‘I'm warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump's base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,’ wrote Moore on Facebook.
Moore cited a series of polls showing Biden and Trump tied, or the race narrowing, in swing states that helped propel Trump to a shock victory in 2016.
Moore, a supporter of Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign, was one of few to predict that ‘Rust Belt’ voters would abandon Democrats and propel Trump to victory in 2016.” Business Insider
However, what Michael Moore misses is that enthusiasm for a person may not equate to enthusiasm for voting. Polling indicates that there is a difference. Moreover, if enthusiasm is measured for voting, then the enthusiasm for voting for Donald Trump is not statistically greater than it is for voting for Joe Biden (or, alternatively, voting for president).
There are different ways of asking a question about enthusiasm through polling. Therefore, depending on how you ask the question the results will be different.
Michael Moore may not be analyzing the enthusiasm polling correctly. Additionally, Michael Moore may not be considering the enthusiasm for voting or the enthusiasm for voting against Donald Trump. Both are different than the enthusiasm for voting for a candidate.
“…emphasizing the election rather than the candidates narrows the apparent enthusiasm gap [between Biden and Trump]. A ... question that omits the word enthusiasm altogether, asking “how important is voting for President this November,” erases the gap [between Biden and Trump] completely.” You Gov
Polling on enthusiasm does not necessarily mean that the enthusiasm gap is a slam dunk for Donald Trump, even in states important to winning the Electoral College.
“Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.” CNN
So, does enthusiasm mean one candidate will win over another? The following analysis from CBS is helpful on this front:
“In summary, [the] data suggest that while Trump voters are more enthusiastic in certain states, other emotions appear to be motivating Democratic voters, who are just as strong in their support of Biden. If lack of enthusiasm doesn't indicate softness of support, does it signal whether or not someone will actually bother to vote at all?
The congressional elections of 2018 — in which historic turnout levels propelled a blue wave in the U.S. House of Representatives — offer some clues. In our polling, Republicans and Democrats showed similar levels of enthusiasm. When we recontacted them after the elections, we found that their pre-election enthusiasm did little to predict whether they actually voted, at least after controlling for their self-reported likelihood of turning out.
However, Republicans and Democrats consistently differed on two other dimensions that year: anger and the perceived importance of the midterms. In competitive districts, Democratic voters were 20 points more likely than Republican voters to say they would be angry if the other party won, as opposed to just disappointed. And Democrats were twice as likely as Republicans to say that the midterms were more important than a presidential election. Neither of these sentiments is "enthusiasm" per se, but they were important signs of discontent underlying a turnout surge.
As we survey voters in competitive states this year, a similar dynamic appears to be at play. However, in the midst of a deadly pandemic and evolving procedures and rules for election administration, it's far less clear how these sentiments will translate to the number of people who cast a vote.” CBS
Therefore, Michael Moore may not be interpreting the polling correctly. Moore is right about Trump's enthusiastic base but he might be wrong about whether that enthusiasm translates into votes giving Trump the electoral victory he needs. Right now, nobody knows how enthusiasm will impact the vote in November 2020. The bottom line, is neither candidate should take anything for granted, particularly Joe Biden.