The secret to winning is registering voters and then getting them out to vote. It appears that The GOP is benefiting from voter registration increases.
“Late last month, the Democratic data firm TargetSmart found that while new voter registrations had plummeted amid the coronavirus pandemic, those who were registering in competitive states tended to be whiter, older and less Democratic than before.
When he saw the numbers, Ben Wessel, executive director of NextGen America, said he ‘got nervous,’ and other Democratic-leaning groups felt the same.
The report seemed to confirm what state elections officials and voter registration groups had been seeing in the field for weeks: Neither Democrats nor Republicans had been registering many voters during the pandemic. But Democrats were suffering disproportionately from the slowdown.” Politico
There are a lot of factors impacting elections including voter registrations, enthusiasm, and turnout. Low voter registration coupled with low voter turnout can equate to an election loss. Low voter registration and turnout caused by complacency can also equate to an election loss.
If Democrats become complacent then Joe Biden has issues. He will have difficulty in coming up with numbers to win in November.
If the pandemic keeps Democrats at home, as evidenced by the lower voter registration, this is also bad news at election time. The goal has to be to increase registrations and voter turnout even with the pandemic threat. This is done by creating messages and campaign tactics designed to keep the voter enthusiastic about registering and voting.
This is the Donald Trump strategy with his base. Democrats have to employ a strategy to keep their base motivated. They have to find a working formula that appeals to the swing voter while keeping the base motivated to vote.
Democrats may have discovered what may work against Trump.
“The advertising elements that appear to work, according to interviews with more than a dozen Democrats involved in message research, vary from ad to ad. Using Trump’s own words against him often tests well, as do charts and other graphics, which serve to highlight Trump’s distaste for science. Voters who swung from President Barack Obama to Trump in 2016 — and who regret it — are good messengers. And so is Joe Biden, whose voice is widely considered preferable to that of a professional narrator. Not only does he convey empathy, according to Democrats inside and outside Biden's campaign, but using Biden's voice "helps people think about him as president," said Patrick Bonsignore, Biden’s director of paid media.
But the ad makers’ overarching takeaway from their research was this: While Trump may not be vulnerable on issues of character alone, as he demonstrated in 2016, he is vulnerable when character is tied to his policy record on the economy and health care.” Politico
During a pandemic, Democrats have to develop a solid message that not only convinces voter to vote Democratic, but to register if not registered and to vote. The magic “message” as reported by Politico may be a good start.
However, right now even with lower attendance at his rally Trump knows how to keep the base motivated. The question is whether Democrats can do the same. Moreover, the real question is how to motivate the swing voting population.
As we have said before, the election is still a long way off and anything can happen
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