Will upscale moderates vote against Trump in next year’s upcoming elections? Although it is too soon to tell what will happen, if the indicators present in this year’s elections (November 2016) are any indicator, the GOP has some issues. Issues that are on the minds of GOP politicians:
“Voters are taking their anger out at the president, and the only way they can do that is by going after Republicans on the ballot,” said Representative Charlie Dent, Republican of Pennsylvania. The New York Times
The issue is not that Democrats won Virginia and New Jersey, it is how they won and their margins of victory in some areas of both states. Those numbers show that moderate upscale suburbanites went democratic. These voters make up a voting base GOP candidates rely on.
The Democrats’ gains signaled deep alienation from the Republican Party among the sort of upscale moderates who were once central to their coalition.
Democrats not only swept Virginia’s statewide races but neared a majority in the House of Delegates, a legislative chamber that was gerrymandered to make the Republican majority virtually unassailable. They seized county executive offices in Westchester and Nassau Counties, N.Y., and carried bellwether mayoral elections in St. Petersburg, Fla., and Manchester, N.H., all races that appeared to favor Republicans only months ago.
In Washington State, Democrats won a special election to take control of the State Senate, establishing total Democratic dominance of government on the West Coast. Democrats took council seats in vote-rich Delaware County, Pa., in the Philadelphia suburbs, a perennial congressional battleground.
Even in the Deep South, Georgia Democrats captured two State House seats where they previously had not even fielded candidates while snatching a State Senate seat in Buckhead, an upscale area of Atlanta. The New York Times
And GOP leaders know why this is happening.
Chris Vance, a former chairman of the Washington State Republican Party, placed the blame squarely on Mr. Trump: “Among college-educated suburbanites, he is a pariah.” The New York Times
If Trump does not change his behavior, then the GOP candidates in the mid term have a serious issue with a significant voting base that this election shows is eroding.
Therefore Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, and Washington State are indicators of “Trouble in Trumpland.”