with some help from our contributor Allen Bradford, who has seen the front lines.
Georgia is holding a special election on June 20. The democrat has a slight lead over the republican-49.7% to 48% for the republican. The democrat leading is significant in the republican dominated district. Both candidates spent, collectively, about 50 million to get to this point.
Who will win? The following was posted by thepoliticalBlog on the subject:
...polls have error margins, and that those error margins attach to *both* candidates. So if Ossoff were at 50 percent, and Karen Handel at 46 percent, and polls had four-point error margins, we wouldn’t be surprised to see polls showing Ossoff with 51, 50, 47 and 50 percent of the vote. Nor would we be surprised to see Handel with 44, 47, 47, and 47 percent of the vote. In fact, this is exactly what we see.
In other words, this variance is perfectly consistent with a small but stable Ossoff lead (since early May, in fact). Of course, we should also remember that there are sources of poll error other than sampling error, and that polling of special elections tends to have big errors as well. Ossoff goes into the election as a favorite, but not an overwhelming one. Real Clear Politics, David Byler
If these trends hold true, Ossoff will win. However, there is a significant factor not measured by this polling data-
Voter turnout. Voter turnout will play a significant factor in the June 20 election. The candidate turning out the vote will gain an advantage. Therefore, there must be a significant voter turnout effort, an effort that is often more difficult in special elections.
Polling trends favor Ossoff, the Democrat. If his support base turns out it gives him the advantage if, an only if, he can turn out swing voters in greater numbers than his opponent, Handel.
Therefore, with the data gathered, the voter turn out issues being considered, and the overall dynamics of the polls being well within the margin of error, and polling data over time, Ossoff remains a slight favorite.
This race, however, remains too close to call. However, we have to say going into the election Ossoff looks like a winner, by a nose.
In considering this too close to call election, we received the following from Allen Bradford giving a view from an individual who has volunteered for the campaign. This perspective shows a well-organized campaign looking to use its organization skills and its fundraising abilities to beat the odds.
Here is the email Allen Bradford sent us on his observations:
Observations: The Ossoff campaign is run like a Swiss watch, and is flush with cash and volunteers, with multiple offices across the GA 6th district. Everyone who shows up is immediately signed in and given work to do. Canvassing information is provided directly to the canvasser's mobile phone, and the canvasser inputs data as he/she goes. The info is detailed with precise and accurate information about the targeted voter. If a canvasser has no phone, the campaign provides an iPad for temporary use. Everyone is given a brief training, water, snacks.
I went with my 22 year old daughter, who was a field organizer for the Clinton campaign in Virginia in 2016, who had just completed a week's worth of GOTV for the successful Northam gubernatorial primary campaign in that same state, and has worked other campaigns. I myself have worked on campaigns at all levels over 30 years. We agreed we'd never seen a campaign for any office run this efficiently. Awareness among people with whom we spoke was very high, unusual among Democrats in an off year special election. I've never seen anything like it for this type of race. Early voting numbers have already exceeded voting in the first round.
However, I understand the GOP has also poured money into Handel's campaign, and this has been a rock ribbed Republican district for years. I think it's still an uphill battle for the Democrat. The GOP is pulling out all stops, and even making an issue of the Virginia Congressional shooting. I do think Dems will beat the GOP in terms of percentage base turnout, but the GOP base is so much larger in this district that it may not matter. Ultimately: closing a 23 point gap in 7 months (GOP incumbent price won by that much last November)? Tall order!
It is a “tall order” for a democrat to win this district, particularly in a special election. However, if Mr. Bradford’s observations are on the money Ossoff's organization may give that victory to Ossoff…by a nose!