“’I don’t think the Lord Jesus could win as a Democrat in Alabama,” said Brad Chim, who runs a Democratic communications firm in Mississippi that has conducted surveys of women voters in Alabama in recent weeks. “They’re just waiting for the Republican Party to tell them how they’re going to fix this.’” The New York Times
In Alabama, it is very unlikely that the Democrat will win the special election on December 12.
First, the Republican base a larger.
Second, this is a special election.
Third, the election is during the holiday season.
Finally, this means voter turn out is low, favoring Roy Moore.
“Mr. Moore was never widely popular in Alabama, even among Republicans; his zealous fan base has been just enough in some past elections, and in others — his two poor showings in Republican primaries for governor — it has been far short of enough. The aversion to Mr. Moore has only grown more pronounced with the outbreak of sexual misconduct allegations, including one that he molested a 14-year-old girl — allegations that Mr. Moore denies.
But distaste for Mr. Moore, while it may lead people to write in other names or just stay home, is for many still not a good enough reason to vote for a Democrat. And here in Alabama, one of the most inflexibly partisan states in the country, where genuine swing voters are few and politics is approached with the same kind of unshakable team loyalty as college football, this is the central problem with Mr. Jones.” The New York Times
Therefore, it is a prefect political storm working against the Democrats. Most important, voter suppression among Republicans may not be strong enough to make a difference. Voter enthusiasm among Democrats may not be strong enough to make a difference. In a State where the Republican base is strong and bigger, it is going to be hard for a Democrat, any Democrat, to win.
The dynamics appear to be working against the Democrats, whose only hope is to motivate its base, and enough swing voters, to out vote the Republicans.
Right now, however, it appears the political winds may favor Moore.
However, it is not over until the fat lady sings on December 12.
If the Lord Jesus Christ could not get elected as a democrat in Alabama, then that must mean Satan himself could win as a Republican.